02-25-2015 Minutes Work Session Mountain Valley

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with what we are proposing with the new high school. We have also continued the same pattern with our elementary schools. This a good model to look at so when we open a school we want to see that it is at least ¾ full. The new high school, Hillcrest, and Bonneville would open with 90% capacity. Hillcrest and Bonneville would drop down to 1125 students and the new school would open at 1350. They would all then be at 90% capacity. Then they would all be at capacity somewhere around 2022 or 2023. When those schools are at 125% capacity it might be time to ask for another high school. We are looking at about15 to 20 years after the new school is built. Mr. Woolstenhulme presented information on the rainbow chart showing enrollment going back to 1995 – 1996 from the state department. Information from 2000 -2002 we flat lined and dropped for a few years. Then the growth started up again. It also dropped in 1996-1998. Our overall growth rate in the District for the last decade, we have had a 3.3% growth rate. If you want to average growth rate year after year it comes out as 3.5% or a median of 3.4%. We are basically looking at a 3.3% growth rate every year in our elementary schools. Every year, we have more students in our schools than the year before. We have been inaccurately criticized because people have looked at the 3% growth rate assumed that every class would be 3% larger. He talked about cohort growth that shows what happens to our classes year after year. That represents a 1.1% growth rate for the kindergarten cohort year after year through 6th grade. The last five years it was below 1% growth. The reason may be that a number of charter schools have opened and we have our online school. The cohort isn’t growing at 3% every single year. The 3% growth is for the District as a whole. We have larger classes coming in but that doesn’t mean we are getting 3% in every class every single year. Historically we are at 1.1% average growth at the elementary level. The criticism calculation is three times higher than we should actually assume. We need to base our assumption on what has happened historically Districtwide. We are dropping off smaller classes of seniors and rolling up larger classes through the elementaries. We t get an atypical bump from charter schools in the 8th and 9th grade that are kids that haven’t been in our system prior to that grade level. We do lose about 15% from the time they are freshman to twelfth grade. Our 8th grade class increases and then is gradually smaller up through 12th grade. The 3% growth is for all grades and all schools. The growth projections are based on historic data. For last three years BOS has been excluded from the numbers presented in order to look at enrollment versus capacity. Technical Careers and Lincoln have not been excluded. Mr. Woolstenhulme talked about the projection going forward using a 3% growth number for high schools. Every year our 9th through 12th population is increasing by 3%. We are showing 31,072 that we have now. In 9th through 12th grade. So assuming 3% growth, you can see where the enrollment will go through 2039 (which is not a safe assumption) if we keep with the 3% growth we have had for the last decade. Mr. Woolstenhulme is uncomfortable looking beyond our current kindergarten class because there are a lot of variables that we can’t control for in the next decade could cause the number to be higher or lower. With the new high school in 2023-2024, the new school would be at capacity and Bonneville and Hillcrest would be just under capacity. Mr. Woolstenhulme will check his numbers because he may be 100 students off because of the exclusion of Bonneville Online student enrollment. He asked that the charts he handed out be returned so he can double check the numbers. At the middle school level, we haven’t talked as a Board or District leadership team about when the right time o build a new school would be. In November, we were 24 students below capacity at Sandcreek and Rocky Mountain. We are past that now. Next year the projection would be 10 students above capacity. If we were to open a 3rd middle school and drop both Rocky Mountain and Sandcreek back to 75% enrollment, we are looking at around 2021-2022 to open a new school at 75% capacity. That would mean that each Rocky Mountain and Sandcreek would be 230 students over capacity. We would have trailers available but, those two buildings would be very overcrowded. We can track that forward to look at when the right time to talk about when opening a new middle school would be. We would be looking at 2021 or 2022 to be talking about the public about opening a new school in two years at 85% capacity based on a 1200 student middle school. Looking at homes platted down south and the homes platted down Iona Road, it depends on how many people move in to the area. Looking at kids we have and growth rate we have had, we should be ok until 2021 or 2023. Mr. McBride is concerned that there are problems with overcrowding now in middle schools. The middle schools are actually at the same enrollment as in 2006 when we had three grades in them. But at this point we can’t pull another grade out and put them somewhere. It will be overcrowded and there will be challenges but we can sustain for a few years before we have to talk about a bond for a middle school. .We don’t want to open a middle school until is at least ¾ full. We are dependent on funding from the state with regard to the number of teachers we can have and the number of administrators we have. If we don’t have the students when we open the school, the funding will be impacted. The city of Ammon is predicting a 3% growth in commercial. As long as Idaho Falls and Ammon are attracting businesses they will need people to fill those businesses. We need to go by these indicators as well. In 2005 we had an enrollment of just over 1000 students at Sandcreek with four modular units. At Rocky Mountain the enrolment has been as high as 800. These numbers are before we moved the 6th grade out and before we moved the boundary between Hillcrest and Bonneville. We will probably need to open a new middle school in 2021. We need to talk about it in 2018 when the new high school opens. E. Bond Overview – Annette Winchester discussed the Bond Election and the need to get everyone signed up to cover the cottage meetings and PTO meetings. Mrs. Messick will post the Bond Questions meeting on Monday March 9th. F. Advocates for Education - Heidi Southwick Chairperson Winchester asked Mrs. Southwick if she had any questions comments or concerns for the Board. Mrs. Southwick thanked the Board for so many hours spent attending cottage meetings and discussions at elementary schools. They have been a real benefit and she recommended that the Board continue doing those types of discussions after the bond is over. The feedback they are getting is that people appreciate discussing their concerns with you in a smaller setting. People who are open minded, they feel good about what you have told them because they have had their questions answered and they feel their concerns have been validated. There is a change with the cottage meeting on Thursday the 5th.of March. It needs to be moved to March 4th at 6:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. There will be an Open House at the District Office on Monday, March 9th from 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. for anyone who has questions or concerns. There was a question regarding whether this could be advertised at the schools. You can advertise that meeting in the schools and anywhere else they would like. In addition to they have done the following: cottage meetings, PTO meetings, and representation at school events, we have signs that we went through very quickly. Unfortunately, we have lost a lot of them. In every area we have had a few disappear. There is not a lot you can do about that. They have distributed flyers, the FaceBook page, editorials in the newspaper, and business contacts in Ammon and Idaho Falls. They have had a pretty good response so far. They give the contact assignment to someone who already has a relationship with the business owner. They have planned several other things to promote the bond in the next couple of weeks. Chairperson Winchester asked if the Advocates were doing editorial or letters to the editor. They have an editorial submitted and it will be printed. Most are letters to the editor. There is a need for an editorial from the District to address numbers to let people know what the plan is and what the District hasn’t planned. We also need someone to write an editorial on what the school will look like. The high schools are involved in encouraging their seniors to go out and vote. That is a great civic opportunity. They are considering a competition between the schools to see which school can get the most seniors that are 18 out to vote. They are also talking about how to distribute the District’s informational materials. We need to encourage kids to express themselves. They will specifically target certain demographics over the next two weeks and until the night before the election. Mr. Nelson wants encourage additional committee to attend the cottage meetings Mrs. Southwick will email committee members to let them know when the cottage meetings are scheduled. These meetings are very helpful and they have built a link between the community and the board. We need to continue to have cottage meetings in different areas to talk about the need for a middle school and elementary needs. Just having them advertised gives people the idea the District really is interested.in their concerns and the District can also communicate their concerns. It gives a good impression even if only a few come.